IPL Playoffs Odds: RCB's 98.2% Progression Chance as We Head Into the Final 14 Matches
NEW DELHI: With 14 games remaining in the league stage, Chennai Super Kings, Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of contention for the playoffs. Riyal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings and Gujarat Titans are almost sure to make the knock-out stage, but Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals still have an even chance while Lucknow Super Giants have Kolkata Knight Riders slim chances.
There are still 16,384 potential outcomes left, which means nothing is guaranteed for any of the seven contestants who are still in contention.
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We examine the likelihoods:
| Team | Best case scenario | Worst case scenario | Probability (%) of securing or sharing the top 4 position | Probability (%) of securing or sharing the first place |
| RCB | The only team leading with 22 points could achieve this if they secure victories in their upcoming matches and GT fail to win all of theirs. | End up 6 th. It could occur should they squander all of their upcoming matches. | 98.2 | 76.0 |
| GT | Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games and RCB lose one or more | Finish 6 th by losing all remaining games | 98.4 | 74.6 |
| PBKS | Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one | Finish 7 th by losing all remaining games | 89.9 | 44.5 |
| MI | The sole top team with 18 points could occur if they win all of their remaining matches, while RCB and GT both lose their leftover fixtures, and PBKS fail to win at least two of theirs. | Finish 7 th by losing every game left | 58.5 | 15.8 |
| DC | Sole topper with 19 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB, GT and PBKS lose two each and MI loses one | Finish 7 th by losing all the remaining games | 57.2 | 14.8 |
| KKR | Conclude in a tie for first place alongside PBKS and DC with 17 points. This could occur if they secure victories in their remaining matches, RCB and GT suffer defeats in theirs, PBKS drop two games, and both DC and MI lose just one apiece. | Finish joint 8 th by losing each of the remaining matches | 14.8 | 1.1 |
| LSG | Finish tied 2 nd This could occur if they secure victories in their upcoming matches, while RCB and GT drop all of theirs, MI only manage to win one out of their next two games, and either PBKS also fail to win again or DC secures no more than a single victory from here on. | Finish 8 th by losing each of the remaining matches | 7.9 | 0.1 |
How we reach the probability figures:
There remain 16,384 potential outcomes as 14 matches are still to be played.
For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.
For example, RCB end up in the top four in 16,092 out of the potential match outcome scenarios, which equates to a 98.2% probability.
In 12,452 of them they end up first or second, singly or jointly, translating to a 76% chance.
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